LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s expanding crop production continues to reshape global markets, raising competitive pressure for U.S. producers as the Southern Hemisphere growing season moves forward. William Maples, Extension economist with Mississippi State University, says early indicators from Brazil suggest another year of heavy export competition for soybeans, corn, and cotton.
Soybean harvest has just begun, with national progress still below 1 percent as of mid-January. USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 6.5 billion bushels, which would mark a new record if achieved. Strong demand from China and Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate continues to support expansion. Exports are forecast at 114 million metric tons, or about 4.2 billion bushels, compared with projected U.S. exports of 1.6 billion bushels.
Corn outlooks carry more uncertainty. Brazil is projected to produce 131 million metric tons of corn, roughly 5.2 billion bushels, about 2 percent below last year. La Niña risks and delays in soybean harvest could limit planting of second-crop safrinha corn, which now accounts for nearly four-fifths of Brazil’s total corn output.
Brazilian cotton production is projected at 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if weather allows production to reach projected levels.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
As the Trump Administration seeks out new global trade partnerships, Congress is considering more support for farmers, which comes as the Federal Reserve warns that farmers need a safety net.
September 08, 2025 11:47 AM
·
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins will travel to Europe and Asia to seek new trade partnerships for U.S. crops after China reduced imports due to tariffs.
September 08, 2025 11:45 AM
·
The $221 million will help farmers and ranchers cover losses from Hurricane Helene that USDA programs didn’t cover. They’ll focus on infrastructure, markets, timber, and future economic losses.
September 05, 2025 05:09 PM
·
Tom Peterson with the New Mexico Cattle Growers Association says taxpayers are “unfortunate casualties” of this overlay now that the Mexican wolf population is stable under ESA guidelines.
September 05, 2025 01:21 PM
·
This Week in Louisiana Agriculture shows us why breaking even is going to be a challenge for corn producers across the state.
September 04, 2025 03:36 PM
·
Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices and skyrocketing input costs, resulting in debt that is outpacing income across the sector, according to the USDA’s new farm income forecast.
September 04, 2025 01:05 PM
·
