NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — The latest WASDE Report for March from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects mixed livestock fundamentals for 2026, with tighter beef supplies, steady pork production, and improving dairy returns shaping the outlook.
Beef production is forecast lower on a slower-than-expected pace of slaughter through early March, partly offset by heavier dressed weights. Beef exports are reduced for the first half of the year, while imports are raised as tighter domestic supplies draw additional shipments from global exporters. Cattle price forecasts are higher through the first three quarters due to continued strong fed cattle demand.
In dairy, the USDA raised its 2026 milk production forecast as herd expansion offsets slower per-cow output gains. Higher forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk pushed the all-milk price outlook up to $19.70 per hundredweight.
However, the ongoing geopolitical conflict involving Iran is beginning to ripple through U.S. agricultural markets, with economists pointing to increased uncertainty that has pushed some investors away from commodities, including cattle.
Analysts say the situation highlights how quickly global events — from geopolitical tensions to energy markets and weather — can reshape the outlook for agriculture. For producers, it’s a reminder that both livestock and grain markets remain closely tied to broader economic forces beyond the farm gate.
Glynn Tonsor, a livestock economist at Kansas State University, says geopolitical developments in the Middle East are influencing broader financial markets.
“Developments in the Middle East, the broader discussion about oil prices — one step from that is macroeconomic and stagflation concerns, and sort of renewed questions about what that means for trade and the broader market,” Tonsor said. “Everything got kind of bearish, and there’s kind of a risk-off move, the way I would describe it. A lot of positioning leaving various commodities, not necessarily oil, but other commodities, and certainly the equity market — putting cash on the sidelines when uncertainty is heightened.”
Beyond global markets, domestic demand trends are also shifting. Tonsor says consumers are beginning to tighten their budgets as food prices remain elevated at both the grocery store and restaurants.
“In February, retail — think grocery store for at-home consumption — willingness to pay in the retail channel was down for seven of the eight categories we tracked,” Tonsor explained. “So, pretty much across the board, we had some softening in the domestic retail channel. And it was down on all eight that were away from home, the dinner meal. So we saw some tightening of the wallet in the February numbers. Now, some context is important — we’ve had a pretty good run. Those month-over-month and even year-over-year statements are relative to higher numbers. So I don’t think the sky is falling. But February already had a little bit of a pullback tone to it, and the developments in the Middle East here early in March have probably added to that.”
He says recent data shows only 17 percent of consumers report their finances are better than a year ago, while more than a third say they are worse off — prompting some households to cut back on dining out.
Weather Could Become the Next Market Driver
Analysts say weather may also play a major role in determining where cattle markets head next. If drought conditions develop across the Hard Red Winter Wheat Belt, that could directly affect cattle country as well.
Market analyst Mike Zuzolo says tight cattle supplies could amplify the impact of any weather stress.
“If we do have a drought in the winter wheat belt, hard red winter wheat belt, that’s probably going to be a drought in the cattle belt as well,” Zuzolo says. “Just to give you an idea — when we were at the mid-2022 highs in crude oil around $101 a barrel, the wheat market was over $12. That drought could give us some support, along with that cutout value in the cattle market. If the cash market comes in and says we’re not going to take this investor selling anymore, that’s something to watch. If wheat rallies on drought, let’s see what cattle does, especially given these tight supplies.”
Zuzolo adds that the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days continues to decline — a sign that available supplies remain tight.
Protecting Farm and Ranchland Under Pressure
Active agricultural land across the United States is facing growing pressure from development, energy infrastructure, and the ongoing challenge of farm succession. As these issues intensify, conservation groups say protecting farmland is becoming increasingly important for the future of food production.
Ben Kurtzman with American Farmland Trust joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to discuss efforts to help preserve working farms and ranches.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Kurtzman explained why farmland protection is especially critical right now as agricultural land faces competing uses, including development for data centers and energy production. He also highlighted how American Farmland Trust works with farmers, ranchers, and local communities to conserve land through a variety of programs and partnerships.
Kurtzman shared guidance for producers interested in protecting their land for future generations, outlining resources to help farmers explore conservation options while keeping land in agricultural production.
LEARN MORE: www.farmland.org
