WASHINGTON, DC (RFD NEWS) — U.S. cattle markets are showing firm price strength even as beef production trends slightly lower, reflecting tighter supplies and continued demand across the livestock sector heading into 2026.
USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered its 2026 beef production forecast to 25.81 billion pounds, down 110 million pounds from last month and about 1 percent below 2025 levels. Slower cattle slaughter in early 2026 is the primary driver, though heavier carcass weights are partially offsetting reduced throughput.
Operationally, cattle are staying on feed longer, with more animals exceeding 150 days on feed and carcass weights reaching record February levels. This trend is helping to maintain beef supplies but also reflects tighter feeder-cattle availability and pressure on packer margins.
Prices continue to move higher. Feeder cattle are projected to average $367.25 per cwt, up $3 from last month, while fed cattle prices are forecast near $242 per cwt, about 8 percent above last year. Strong demand and limited supplies are supporting the market despite some volatility.
Regionally, feedlot activity remains concentrated across the Plains, with Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado continuing to anchor cattle production and marketing.
Looking ahead, tighter production, strong prices, and rising imports are expected to shape cattle markets, while export competitiveness may remain limited due to higher U.S. price levels.
Ranchers in Idaho are enjoying the current high cattle prices, but have concerns about rising input costs.
Glenn Elzinga of Alderspring Ranch explained that there is significant pressure on producers to rebuild their herds, but numerous roadblocks stand in the way.
“There is heifer retention going on, and that is the first nail in the coffin in this high price,” Elzinga says, “Everything else has gone up. Equipment has gone up, fuel has gone up. The maintenance of equipment has gone up.”
Elzinga adds that labor is another rising expense. He tells Aginfo.net that live-in ranch hands used to make around $8 an hour, but the current pay rate has since skyrocketed to $20 an hour.
Shaun Haney joined RFD News to discuss the potential impact of the Trump-Xi summit uncertainty, ongoing agricultural trade talks, and why geopolitical developments could carry important implications for farmers and global commodity markets.
