LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD News) — The cattle market decline began with managed-money liquidation but has developed broader fundamental pressure. ClearCut Forecasting founder Cody Norton says futures weakened before cash cattle and boxed beef, signaling that position unwinding initially drove the break.
May placements fell 10 percent, and marketings declined 12 percent, yet June 1 feedlot inventories increased 2 percent. Norton says slower marketings left cattle in feedlots longer, supporting dressed weights near 902 pounds while reducing turnover.
Beef-on-dairy crosses likely contribute to that long-fed inventory. These cattle often enter feeding programs lighter and require more days to reach finished weights. Research shows 550-pound placements may require about 220 days on feed, compared with 142 days for 950-pound cattle.
Market pressure later reached cash cattle and boxed beef as packers reduced slaughter. Norton says the Choice cutout falling below last year suggests record retail prices may now be rationing demand.
Near-term cattle prices could remain vulnerable, but historically tight cow numbers and a smaller calf crop limit future supplies. Longer feeding periods can temporarily add tonnage without creating more cattle.
