WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — New analysis suggests the U.S. cattle industry may not be entering a full herd expansion just yet, despite an increase in cattle numbers reported in July.
Market analysis firm Clear-Cut Forecasting says the reported gain of roughly 200,000 head depends largely on a downward revision to last year’s inventory estimate. Without that revision, the latest cattle inventory would be essentially flat compared to earlier estimates.
Analysts also note that underlying breeding herd numbers remain about 100,000 head lower, suggesting meaningful expansion has yet to take hold. They say producers should be cautious about interpreting the latest inventory report as confirmation that herd rebuilding is underway.
Judge Certifies Cattle Producer Class Action Against Major Meatpackers
Meanwhile, a federal judge has certified a class-action lawsuit against several of the nation’s largest meatpackers.
The case includes cattle producers who sold fed cattle to Cargill, JBS, National Beef and Tyson Foods between mid-2015 and early 2020. Producers allege the companies coordinated purchases, reduced slaughter rates and created cattle backlogs that depressed fed cattle prices while increasing packer profit margins. The companies have denied wrongdoing, and the case will move forward as a class action.
The cattle industry is also closely watching changes to USDA’s implementation of the Packers and Stockyards Act.
Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall is criticizing the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) plan to rescind or further delay several rules affecting the livestock and poultry sectors. Duvall says the regulations were intended to strengthen protections against retaliation, improve transparency in livestock marketing and address concerns with poultry grower compensation systems.
He warns that rolling back the rules could weaken safeguards for cattle and poultry producers and is urging the Trump administration and USDA to keep the protections in place while continuing efforts to ensure a fair and competitive marketplace.
Reopened Mexican Cattle Trade Balances Supply Biosecurity Risks
USDA’s phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports reflects a new balance between feeder-cattle supply needs and New World screwworm protection. Oklahoma State University trade economist Aleks Schaefer says the decision is scientifically sound because the pest is now confirmed inside the United States.
Before restrictions, Mexico supplied about 1.2 million feeder cattle annually. At the disruption’s peak, monthly imports fell more than 150,000 head below levels predicted by historical market relationships.
The reduced flow tightened feeder supplies and lifted prices. The analysis estimates border closures pushed feeder cattle values nearly $100 per hundredweight above expected levels by July 2025, increasing costs for feedlots and downstream beef markets.
The policy question has now changed. Officials must determine whether continued restrictions meaningfully slow spread, prevent reinfestation, or provide enough additional response time to justify ongoing market losses.
The phased reopening allows trade to resume while biosecurity controls remain in place. Producers will watch inspection requirements, regional disease status, import volumes, and whether renewed Mexican supplies ease feeder prices without increasing animal-health risk.
