NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. cheese exports are projected to expand again in 2026, reinforcing cheese as the primary engine of American dairy trade growth and a key source of milk demand. USDA forecasts U.S. cheese exports rising about 3 percent from 2025, supported by expanding processing capacity, competitive pricing, and strong international demand.
Higher milk production and continued investment in cheese plants across major dairy states — including Wisconsin, Texas, Kansas, Minnesota, and Idaho — are underpinning export growth. USDA notes that U.S. cheese prices remain competitive with global suppliers, helping American exporters gain market share in Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Strong shipments to Japan, South Korea, and Australia boosted 2025 exports sharply, setting the stage for continued momentum into 2026.
Export conditions among competitors are less favorable. European Union cheese exports are expected to decline slightly as tightening milk supplies, strong domestic demand, and higher prices limit export availability. New Zealand cheese exports are forecast higher despite modestly lower milk production, supported by recent processing investments. Australia is also projected to increase cheese exports, reaching its highest level in more than a decade as production rebounds and Asian demand improves.
Overall, global cheese trade growth in 2026 is expected to be modest, with the United States accounting for a significant share of the expansion.
Shaun Haney joined RFD News to discuss the potential impact of the Trump-Xi summit uncertainty, ongoing agricultural trade talks, and why geopolitical developments could carry important implications for farmers and global commodity markets.
