WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — President Donald Trump is set to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington this week, with the agriculture industry closely watching the two countries’ ongoing trade relationship.
Ag economist Jeff Peterson says his calculations show China has purchased about 12.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans so far and has begun shipping some of those beans.
That figure is consistent with recent reporting from Reuters, which reported Sept. 10 that Chinese purchases had reached nearly half of the 25 million metric tons the White House said China committed to purchasing annually through 2028.
Reuters also reported that China purchased about 1 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans that week alone, according to four traders.
“If you bring together what they bought and take a portion of the unknown category, it would say that they probably purchased about 12 and a half million metric tons of beans, and they’ve started to ship some of those beans,” Peterson said.
Peterson says the purchases put China about halfway toward the annual commitment.
“I think they will get them all, but it will take all the crop year,” Peterson said. “So, they’re well on their way.”
However, Peterson says he is watching another possibility as the two countries prepare for talks: that China could use its soybean purchases as leverage in negotiations over other issues, including U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
“One potential thing that we’re watching in the back of our minds that we’re a little concerned about is that did China purchase a bunch of these beans, come into this meeting and say, okay, we’ve bought these beans, we don’t have to ship them,” Peterson said.
Peterson questioned whether China could use those purchases to seek concessions from the United States.
“What are you going to do about those arms sales to Taiwan? Are they going to use that as a leverage point on us? Don’t know. Keep an eye on it,” he said. “That could be something that could put pressure on soybeans.”
Reuters reported Monday that Taiwan and trade are among the issues that could surface during this week’s Trump-Xi meeting, although the scope and outcome of the discussions remain uncertain.
Xi is expected to arrive in the United States Wednesday, with talks with Trump scheduled for Thursday. He is expected to return to China Friday.
