LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — U.S. cotton markets are adjusting to a major shift as China sharply reduces purchases, raising questions about whether the world’s largest textile producer will remain a dependable export customer. The change carries significant implications for producers because more than 80 percent of U.S. cotton production relies on export demand.
University of Tennessee economist Dr. Andrew Muhammad reports that China’s imports of U.S. cotton fell dramatically in 2025, with purchase value dropping from $1.5 billion to $0.2 billion — an 85 percent decline — while volumes fell from 0.8 million metric tons to 0.1 million metric tons. China had accounted for nearly 30 percent of U.S. cotton exports between 2020 and 2024, making the contraction especially impactful for global trade flows.
The decline reflects more than trade tensions. China has expanded domestic cotton production, reduced reliance on imports, and drawn down state stockpiles accumulated over the past decade. Domestic output has risen more than 30 percent since 2021, allowing its textile sector to rely increasingly on local fiber supplies.
Operationally, U.S. exporters redirected shipments elsewhere. Cotton exports to non-China destinations increased 32 percent in value and 51 percent in volume in 2025, partially offsetting the loss of Chinese demand.
Across all suppliers — including Brazil, India, and Australia — shipments to China declined sharply, signaling a broader structural shift rather than a U.S.-specific trade dispute.
