NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coffee supplies are expanding in 2025–26, but tightening stocks and shifting production patterns continue to affect prices and availability for the U.S. market, according to USDA’s latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. World coffee production is forecast at a record 178.8 million bags, yet global consumption is rising nearly as fast, keeping ending stocks on a downward trajectory for the fifth consecutive year.
For the United States, the world’s largest coffee importer, supply dynamics remain critical. USDA raised U.S. coffee bean imports to 23.4 million bags for 2024–25, reflecting higher domestic consumption. With global ending stocks projected to fall to 20.1 million bags, coffee prices remain elevated, with the International Coffee Organization’s composite price index nearly tripling over the past several years.
Production gains are concentrated outside the Western Hemisphere. Indonesia’s coffee output is rebounding sharply, led by a 1.7-million-bag increase in Robusta production as weather and labor availability improve. Vietnam continues its recovery, boosting Robusta supplies, while Ethiopia posts record output on higher-yielding varieties. These gains offset declines in Brazil and Colombia, where drought, heat stress, and excessive rainfall reduced Arabica production.
Brazil remains the world’s largest producer, but its 2025–26 crop is forecast down 2.0 million bags, tightening high-quality Arabica supplies favored by U.S. roasters. With consumption still rising globally, USDA expects prices to remain sensitive to weather and production risks heading into 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong global demand and falling stocks suggest continued price volatility for U.S. coffee buyers despite record world production.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
U.S. dairy producers remain the primary growth engine globally, while tightening supplies in Europe and New Zealand could support export demand for American dairy products.
December 26, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Fewer acres and stronger prices suggest disciplined hop production is supporting market balance despite lower output.
December 25, 2025 06:00 PM
·
Benchmark machinery costs against those of similar-sized, high-performing operations to inform equipment and investment decisions.
December 25, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
December 25, 2025 06:00 AM
·
Broader export demand helps stabilize prices and supports stronger marketing opportunities over time.
December 24, 2025 03:00 PM
·
Rising production underscores the importance of marketing discipline and margin protection as milk supplies expand.
December 23, 2025 04:09 PM
·
Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-IA, details how the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) supports farmers, biofuels, and rural communities with tax breaks, crop insurance relief, and ag infrastructure.
December 23, 2025 02:01 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains why the 2026 USMCA review could directly affect dairy access, produce competition, and export reliability for U.S. farmers and ranchers.
December 23, 2025 01:04 PM
·
The report shows that, despite production challenges, dairy farmers are producing more milk with fewer resources per gallon across the industry.
December 23, 2025 12:45 PM
·
