NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coffee supplies are expanding in 2025–26, but tightening stocks and shifting production patterns continue to affect prices and availability for the U.S. market, according to USDA’s latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. World coffee production is forecast at a record 178.8 million bags, yet global consumption is rising nearly as fast, keeping ending stocks on a downward trajectory for the fifth consecutive year.
For the United States, the world’s largest coffee importer, supply dynamics remain critical. USDA raised U.S. coffee bean imports to 23.4 million bags for 2024–25, reflecting higher domestic consumption. With global ending stocks projected to fall to 20.1 million bags, coffee prices remain elevated, with the International Coffee Organization’s composite price index nearly tripling over the past several years.
Production gains are concentrated outside the Western Hemisphere. Indonesia’s coffee output is rebounding sharply, led by a 1.7-million-bag increase in Robusta production as weather and labor availability improve. Vietnam continues its recovery, boosting Robusta supplies, while Ethiopia posts record output on higher-yielding varieties. These gains offset declines in Brazil and Colombia, where drought, heat stress, and excessive rainfall reduced Arabica production.
Brazil remains the world’s largest producer, but its 2025–26 crop is forecast down 2.0 million bags, tightening high-quality Arabica supplies favored by U.S. roasters. With consumption still rising globally, USDA expects prices to remain sensitive to weather and production risks heading into 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong global demand and falling stocks suggest continued price volatility for U.S. coffee buyers despite record world production.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
October 29, 2025 10:15 AM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
The idea of buying more beef from Argentina does not sit well with much of farm country, raising some questions from analysts and producers.
October 28, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Input costs are top of mind for farmers, as they contribute to higher prices and smaller profits.
October 28, 2025 12:00 PM
·
The President’s trip to Asia this week follows a trade mission by the Iowa Soybean Association. Farmers say they were reminded that U.S. soybeans have an international reputation that can be easy to take for granted here at home.
October 28, 2025 11:28 AM
·
The review signals renewed scrutiny of China’s agricultural trade pledges and could reshape farm export opportunities depending on its outcome.
October 28, 2025 11:20 AM
·
The U.S.-Japan tech pact signals long-term investment in bio-innovation, connectivity, and secure supply chains — all of which can strengthen rural manufacturing, ag exports, and digital infrastructure critical to the next generation of farm productivity.
October 28, 2025 11:01 AM
·
Harvest Marches on as River Logistics And Inputs Steer Bids
October 27, 2025 04:09 PM
·
John Appel with the Farmers Business Network (FBN) joins us for a closer look at the 2026 Crop Protection Market Outlook Report.
October 27, 2025 01:00 PM
·
