NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coffee supplies are expanding in 2025–26, but tightening stocks and shifting production patterns continue to affect prices and availability for the U.S. market, according to USDA’s latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. World coffee production is forecast at a record 178.8 million bags, yet global consumption is rising nearly as fast, keeping ending stocks on a downward trajectory for the fifth consecutive year.
For the United States, the world’s largest coffee importer, supply dynamics remain critical. USDA raised U.S. coffee bean imports to 23.4 million bags for 2024–25, reflecting higher domestic consumption. With global ending stocks projected to fall to 20.1 million bags, coffee prices remain elevated, with the International Coffee Organization’s composite price index nearly tripling over the past several years.
Production gains are concentrated outside the Western Hemisphere. Indonesia’s coffee output is rebounding sharply, led by a 1.7-million-bag increase in Robusta production as weather and labor availability improve. Vietnam continues its recovery, boosting Robusta supplies, while Ethiopia posts record output on higher-yielding varieties. These gains offset declines in Brazil and Colombia, where drought, heat stress, and excessive rainfall reduced Arabica production.
Brazil remains the world’s largest producer, but its 2025–26 crop is forecast down 2.0 million bags, tightening high-quality Arabica supplies favored by U.S. roasters. With consumption still rising globally, USDA expects prices to remain sensitive to weather and production risks heading into 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong global demand and falling stocks suggest continued price volatility for U.S. coffee buyers despite record world production.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Rising import pressure and tougher export competition are likely to persist into 2026, supporting domestic supplies while capping export growth.
January 26, 2026 09:56 AM
·
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
January 23, 2026 04:40 PM
·
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
January 23, 2026 01:54 PM
·
Rural population growth and stabilizing economic indicators point to post-pandemic recovery, but uneven income, shifting industries, and regional divides remain key challenges for rural communities.
January 23, 2026 08:00 AM
·
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
·
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
January 22, 2026 12:38 PM
·
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.
January 21, 2026 11:50 AM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
January 21, 2026 10:36 AM
·
