NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coffee supplies are expanding in 2025–26, but tightening stocks and shifting production patterns continue to affect prices and availability for the U.S. market, according to USDA’s latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. World coffee production is forecast at a record 178.8 million bags, yet global consumption is rising nearly as fast, keeping ending stocks on a downward trajectory for the fifth consecutive year.
For the United States, the world’s largest coffee importer, supply dynamics remain critical. USDA raised U.S. coffee bean imports to 23.4 million bags for 2024–25, reflecting higher domestic consumption. With global ending stocks projected to fall to 20.1 million bags, coffee prices remain elevated, with the International Coffee Organization’s composite price index nearly tripling over the past several years.
Production gains are concentrated outside the Western Hemisphere. Indonesia’s coffee output is rebounding sharply, led by a 1.7-million-bag increase in Robusta production as weather and labor availability improve. Vietnam continues its recovery, boosting Robusta supplies, while Ethiopia posts record output on higher-yielding varieties. These gains offset declines in Brazil and Colombia, where drought, heat stress, and excessive rainfall reduced Arabica production.
Brazil remains the world’s largest producer, but its 2025–26 crop is forecast down 2.0 million bags, tightening high-quality Arabica supplies favored by U.S. roasters. With consumption still rising globally, USDA expects prices to remain sensitive to weather and production risks heading into 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong global demand and falling stocks suggest continued price volatility for U.S. coffee buyers despite record world production.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
December 11, 2025 01:53 PM
·
Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
December 11, 2025 01:32 PM
·
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
December 11, 2025 01:16 PM
·
Experts say flooding the zone with more money could have unintented consequences without opening new markets for planted crops and inputs under significant pressure.
December 11, 2025 12:25 PM
·
Julie Callahan was nominated earlier this summer by President Donald Trump, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers she is ready to hit the ground running.
December 11, 2025 11:35 AM
·
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins signed six MAHA waivers for SNAP in Hawaii, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee.
December 10, 2025 02:25 PM
·
Rural employers are slightly more optimistic, but labor shortages and renewed price pressures continue to limit growth across farm country according to a
December 10, 2025 11:56 AM
·
December 10, 2025 11:03 AM
Stable U.S. fundamentals continue for major crops, but global adjustments in corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton may influence early-2026 pricing.
December 10, 2025 10:31 AM
·
