NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. coffee buyers may see improved supply from Colombia and Costa Rica next season, but USDA forecasts show weather and input costs still threaten recovery. The United States remains the leading export market for both countries.
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Colombia’s 2026/27 production at 13.4 million 60-kilogram bags, up 7.2 percent after excessive rain cut the current crop. Exports are also forecast at 13.4 million bags.
Costa Rica’s production is forecast to rise 3.5 percent to 1.2 million bags, while exports reach 1.06 million bags. The United States accounts for more than 40 percent of Colombian exports and nearly 40 percent of Costa Rican shipments.
Growers still face pressure. Colombia reports falling coffee prices alongside rising fertilizer and labor costs. Costa Rica faces higher fertilizer and fuel costs, a strong local currency that reduces growers’ returns, and possible El Niño-related dryness.
Despite larger crops, ending stocks are forecast to be lower in both countries, leaving limited protection against harvest disruptions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Improved coffee output could strengthen the U.S. supply, but input costs and weather risks keep the outlook uncertain.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
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