LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Cotton may be regaining a competitive advantage as rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions challenge polyester’s long-held price edge. Textile industry analyst Bob Antoshak says global events are shifting the economics of fiber markets.
Polyester has historically benefited from cheap energy, efficient shipping, and low-cost direct imports. But conflict in the Middle East is disrupting trade routes and raising costs for petrochemical-based materials tied to crude oil.
Polyester production depends heavily on petroleum-based inputs like naphtha, and tightening oil supplies are pushing costs higher. At the same time, the closure of the U.S. de minimis import loophole is increasing costs for low-priced fast-fashion imports, many of which rely heavily on synthetic fibers.
That shift may improve cotton’s outlook. USDA recently raised its projected average upland cotton price for the 2025/26 marketing year, while export sales and shipments have improved in recent weeks.
Cotton may not need to outperform polyester on price alone. Reliability, traceability, and sourcing security are becoming more important factors for buyers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cotton may gain demand as polyester costs rise.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
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