LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Cotton margins have improved modestly, even as fertilizer and fuel costs jumped after the Strait of Hormuz disruption tied to the Iran war. Terrain’s Marc Rosenbohm says the net effect of higher input costs and stronger cotton prices has left projected U.S. average cotton operating margins slightly better than they were before the conflict began.
Rosenbohm said the projected margin indicator was near $100 before the war, rose to about $125 by April 9, and reached roughly $150 by April 22. He said the same general trend was evident across major cotton-growing regions, even though individual farm outcomes vary.
Part of the support came from the market itself. Cotton prices rose more than corn, soybeans, and wheat from pre-war levels, and managed money moved from a large net short position to a net long position as the rally developed.
Terrain said the market now appears to be trying to buy cotton acres at the margin. Even so, Rosenbohm cautioned that near-term cotton prices still face upside risk from more energy disruption and downside risk if higher fuel costs weaken textile demand.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cotton’s margin outlook has improved, but energy-driven volatility is still a major risk heading into planting and acreage decisions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Dry conditions may tighten hay supplies before summer growth. John Mays of Central Life Sciences joined us to discuss the risks of extended grain storage, how quality can be affected over time, and what growers can do to protect their grain while waiting for market opportunities.
March 02, 2026 02:21 PM
·
Crop value concentration keeps farm income tied closely to commodity price cycles.
March 02, 2026 01:23 PM
·
High fertilizer costs and global risks threaten spring margins for growers.
March 02, 2026 12:22 PM
·
Strong land values contrast with mounting credit pressure.
March 01, 2026 12:00 PM
·
Restored base acres strengthen cotton risk protection.
March 01, 2026 05:00 AM
·
From projected drops in input costs to biofuel expansion and the USDA’s new “One Farmer, One File” initiative, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins shared key policy priorities at Commodity Classic that put farm issues back in the spotlight.
February 27, 2026 11:32 AM
·
