LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Cotton margins have improved modestly, even as fertilizer and fuel costs jumped after the Strait of Hormuz disruption tied to the Iran war. Terrain’s Marc Rosenbohm says the net effect of higher input costs and stronger cotton prices has left projected U.S. average cotton operating margins slightly better than they were before the conflict began.
Rosenbohm said the projected margin indicator was near $100 before the war, rose to about $125 by April 9, and reached roughly $150 by April 22. He said the same general trend was evident across major cotton-growing regions, even though individual farm outcomes vary.
Part of the support came from the market itself. Cotton prices rose more than corn, soybeans, and wheat from pre-war levels, and managed money moved from a large net short position to a net long position as the rally developed.
Terrain said the market now appears to be trying to buy cotton acres at the margin. Even so, Rosenbohm cautioned that near-term cotton prices still face upside risk from more energy disruption and downside risk if higher fuel costs weaken textile demand.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cotton’s margin outlook has improved, but energy-driven volatility is still a major risk heading into planting and acreage decisions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Stable U.S. fundamentals continue for major crops, but global adjustments in corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton may influence early-2026 pricing.
December 10, 2025 10:31 AM
·
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
December 09, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Grain farms still have strong balance sheets, but another stretch of low profits will force hard cost cuts, especially on high-rent, highly leveraged operations.
December 09, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.
December 09, 2025 07:00 AM
·
Lawmakers and experts react to the Administration’s long-awaited announcement of “bridge” aid to stabilize farms and offset 2025 losses until expanded safety-net programs begin in 2026.
December 08, 2025 05:40 PM
·
Joe Peiffer with Ag & Business Legal Strategies advises farmers on end-of-year financial planning, including preparing records, avoiding common credit mistakes, and evaluating equipment purchases for 2026.
December 08, 2025 04:43 PM
·
