URBANA, Ill. (RFD-TV) — Grain farms are coming off their weakest income year in decades. Still, they are not yet facing a 1980s-style crisis, according to a new farmdoc daily analysis from the University of Illinois. Using Illinois Farm Business Farm Management data back to the 1990s, economists show 2024 farm operating income averaged a loss of $15,000, the lowest on record, after peaking at $339,000 in 2022.
Low prices and stubborn costs pushed the operating expense ratio to 0.83 in 2024, meaning operating costs consumed 83% of gross returns — the highest since 1990. Yet most farms ended 2024 with solid balance sheets: average working capital was $372,000, the current ratio was 2.47, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 0.187, which is still considered very strong.
The authors warn that another year or two of weak profitability will erode that strength. Without higher grain prices, farms will need to reduce high input costs — fertilizer, seed, pesticides, and, especially, cash rent. Younger, heavily rented operations face the most pressure, even as ad hoc payments temporarily cushion returns.
Compared with the 1980s, the study notes lower leverage, stronger financial monitoring, and more conservative borrowing, which together make a broad bankruptcy wave unlikely. Instead, lenders are expected to tighten credit, forcing cost adjustments and, in some cases, orderly exits.
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USDA Rural Development Director for Kentucky, Travis Burton, joined us to discuss the Princeton facility (formerly Porter Road Meats), now backed by the USDA, and its role in expanding domestic meat processing capacity.
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Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
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Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
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Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
January 21, 2026 10:36 AM
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Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
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Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
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From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
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