LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Cotton prices could get more support in 2026/27 as global mill use rises above production and ending stocks decline. USDA’s Economic Research Service projects world cotton ending stocks at 71.8 million bales, down 7 percent from the previous year.
The tighter outlook starts with smaller production. ERS forecasts global cotton production at 116.0 million bales, down 5 percent from 2025/26, with lower crops expected in most major producing countries except India. U.S. production is projected at 13.3 million bales.
Demand is expected to improve modestly. Global cotton mill use is forecast at 121.7 million bales, up 1 percent, with China and India again accounting for more than half of total use.
U.S. cotton exports are projected at 12.3 million bales, up 300,000 from the previous year and the highest in four years. Ending stocks are forecast at 3.9 million bales.
Drought remains a major risk, with the ERS reporting that 98 percent of the U.S. cotton production area was affected by drought in early May.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller global production and rising mill use could support cotton prices, but drought will shape U.S. crop potential.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
March 15 of each year is the application deadline for the Pima Cotton Trust, and March 1 of each year is the application deadline for the Wool Trust. The law mandates trust payments by April 15. More information about these programs is available at www.fas.usda.gov/programs.
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