LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Cull cow prices are holding unusually firm heading into late fall, bucking their normal seasonal decline even as beef imports and tariff policy dominate recent headlines.
According to Dr. David Anderson, Livestock Marketing Economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the market typically weakens this time of year as both beef and dairy operations increase culling after weaning and during herd management shifts. Those seasonal factors usually coincide with softer end-of-grilling-season demand, creating predictable price lows in the fall. But this year’s Southern Plains cull cow market has remained far stronger than expected.
Dr. Anderson notes that Southern Plains cull cow auction prices climbed to roughly $165 per cwt in June and have stayed near that level through the fall, slipping briefly before rebounding each time.
National average cutter cows have eased about $9 per cwt to $126, but live cow prices overall remain historically strong. The cow beef market, however, is acting more traditionally. The boxed cow beef cutout has fallen from $340 to $317 per cwt, and wholesale 90-percent lean trimmings have slid from $436 to $404 per cwt, both reflecting the usual fall decline in cow beef values.
Looking ahead, Dr. Anderson expects dairy-side culling to pick up. USDA’s latest report shows the dairy herd at 9.85 million head, the largest since at least 1993, with September milk production up 4 percent from last year.
Lower milk prices and strong returns from beef-on-dairy breeding are likely to pressure dairy culling higher, while beef cow culling should remain historically low due to tight cow inventories and incentives to expand. That combination — more dairy cows and fewer beef cows entering the pipeline — is expected to keep cull cow prices elevated deeper into winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than normal this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
October 30, 2025 12:04 PM
·
The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
October 30, 2025 10:37 AM
·
Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
October 29, 2025 03:35 PM
·
Tara Vander Dussen, fifth-generation dairy farmer, environmental scientist, and co-host of Discover Ag, joined RFD-TV to talk about her work in agriculture and her passion for sharing the story of dairy.
October 29, 2025 03:33 PM
·
Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
October 29, 2025 03:11 PM
·
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
October 29, 2025 03:04 PM
·
Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. Consumer beef prices also remain near all-time highs, threatening long-term demand.
October 29, 2025 12:58 PM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
Alan Bjerga, Senior Vice President of Communications with the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), shares updates and resources available to dairy producers.
October 28, 2025 02:03 PM
·
