LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Cull cow prices are entering 2026 at historically high levels, and while seasonal patterns suggest a mid-year rally is still possible, gains may be more modest than usual. That outlook comes from Dr. David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension livestock economist, who says tight supplies remain the dominant factor supporting the market.
Cull cow prices typically soften in the fall as slaughter rises, but that pattern largely failed in late 2025. Southern Plains auction prices for 85–90 percent lean cows held near $163 per hundredweight from June through year-end. Nationally, cutter cow prices dipped seasonally but recovered most of those losses by December, even as cow beef cutout values declined more than 9 percent.
Slaughter trends help explain the resilience. Beef cow culling stayed exceptionally low in 2025, down more than 17 percent year over year, reflecting herd rebuilding efforts and a smaller cow inventory. Dairy cow slaughter increased modestly in the second half of the year as the U.S. dairy herd expanded to its largest size since the early 1990s.
Looking ahead, Anderson expects lean beef grinding supplies to remain tight, supporting prices into mid-year. While dairy cow culling could increase if milk prices weaken further, beef cow slaughter is likely to stay limited.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
November 16, 2025 12:00 PM
·
The ACRE Act modestly reduces farmland borrowing costs now, with more savings possible once federal guidance clarifies which loans qualify.
November 15, 2025 03:00 PM
·
ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
November 15, 2025 12:00 PM
·
USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
November 14, 2025 05:26 PM
·
USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
November 14, 2025 03:36 PM
·
The Dairy Checkoff’s new approach to consumer marketing helps farmers bridge the gap between physical vs. digital touchpoints and deliver more end sales.
November 14, 2025 01:52 PM
·
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
November 14, 2025 12:22 PM
·
Expanded aerial capacity strengthens the U.S.–Mexico buffer against screwworm, providing cattle producers with stronger protection heading into winter and reducing risk to herds along the southern tier.
November 14, 2025 10:34 AM
·
Learn the conditions farmers must meet to qualify for this new three-year tax deferral on farmland sales, how much it could save, and other details to consider.
November 13, 2025 01:57 PM
·
