Dairy Markets See Lower Butter And Cheese Prices

Disease risks remain a key factor to watch heading into fall.

butter Cristen Clark_FarmHER S1_Ep 11

FarmHER Cristen Clark (Season 1, Episode 11)

FarmHER, Inc.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. dairy markets are under pressure as butter and cheese prices both declined this week, according to USDA and CME data.

Butter fell to its lowest level since November 2021 on sharply higher supply, while cheese markets also slid, with analysts noting exports remain competitive, but any further weakness could spur renewed domestic demand.

Shell egg prices held steady in most regions, though West Coast markets eased slightly. Supplies have improved, but seasonal demand and rising Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) cases — eight confirmed by USDA in the past 30 days — are keeping markets firm.

Meanwhile, U.S. milk production remains strong, with July output up 3.4 percent year-over-year, the largest gain since May 2021, supported by high butterfat levels.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face lower returns on butter and cheese, but strong milk production and steady egg demand help balance the market. Disease risks remain a key factor to watch heading into fall.
Related Stories
Secretary Rollins also met with specialty crop producers at a local strawberry farm to discuss workforce needs and the Trump Administration’s recent wins related to significantly cutting the cost of H-2A labor for California farmers.
China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable. Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance offers his perspective on cattle markets, risk management, and producer sentiment.
USDA flash corn sales, Cattle on Feed and Inventory reports, and beef packer antitrust concerns dominate January agricultural market news.
Larger grain stocks increase supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance — especially for corn and sorghum — suggests demand remains an important offset.
Strong pork demand and improving beef exports outside China support protein markets despite ongoing trade barriers.
Logistics capacity remains available, but winter volatility favors flexible delivery and marketing plans. NGFA President Mike Seyfert provides insight into grain transportation trends, trade policy, and priorities for the year ahead.
Traders are keeping a close eye on China’s soybean purchases as markets track export sales, shipments, and progress toward the ‘magical’ 12 million ton target promised last year.
As domestic production and blending slowed, export demand remained a clear bright spot.
Expanding chicken supplies are likely to keep prices under pressure in early 2026 despite steady demand growth.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

AFBF Economist Faith Parum discusses the financial challenges currently facing farmers and the Farm Bureau’s 2026 outlook for the farm economy.
Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.