Dairy Output Rises While Prices And Margins Weaken

Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Dairy Market Report for September (PDF version) shows U.S. milk production climbed three percent year-over-year this summer, with milk solids up nearly four percent.

Strong cow numbers and per-cow yields boosted supplies, while butter output rose eight percent and cheddar production increased more than eight percent.

Despite growth, prices slipped as July’s all-milk average fell to $20.80 per hundredweight, down $2.00 from a year earlier. Feed costs also eased, but the Dairy Margin Coverage margin narrowed to $10.94.

On the demand side, domestic commercial use of all dairy products rose 2.2 percent, driven by yogurt and skim milk powders, though cheese use dropped two percent. Exports accounted for 17.8 percent of milk solids, the highest share since 2023, with butter shipments up 144 percent and cheddar exports up 83 percent. Imports remained below four percent, with butter and cheese both down sharply.

Looking forward, USDA raised milk production forecasts through 2026 but trimmed Class III, Class IV, and all-milk price projections, citing continued heavy supply pressure.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

Related Stories
Sen. Roger Marshall discusses the Senate’s unanimous passage of the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act and what expanded milk options could mean for students and dairy farmers. Industry groups say it is a win for student nutrition and dairy producers.
Lower tariff rates and new rail-service proposals may improve corn movement efficiency during early-season marketing.
Crop producers face tightening credit and lower incomes, while strong cattle markets continue to stabilize finances in livestock-heavy regions.
Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
Bangladesh recently pledged to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat and has also become a new buyer of American soybeans.
Ethanol exports are expanding on strong demand from Canada and Europe, while DDGS shipments remain broad-based and supportive for feed markets.
Dalton Henry, with U.S. Wheat Associates, joined RFD-TV to provide insight on what the pending trade frameworks may mean for American wheat growers.
Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.

Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Pam Minick, “The American Rancher” focuses on the people and places that make ranching an American lifestyle. This half-hour magazine format series features livestock producers and their ranches, animals, and ranching practices.
For the latest information on how to take your operation from good to great, tune into Ag PhD. The program includes a wide range of agronomic information from how to maximize your fertilizer program & tiling to stopping those yield-robbing insects and crop diseases and more.
RFD-TV is always creating new ways for rural America to educate and to be educated. RURAL AMERICA LIVE, the network’s longest-running self-produced program, is certainly no exception.