Dairy Prices Slide, Exports Shift, and Inventories Tighten

Weaker U.S. dairy prices come as value-added exports expand and ingredient inventories tighten, creating mixed market signals for producers.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)Dairy product markets softened in October as U.S. prices for butter, cheese, and most powders weakened sharply compared to last year. Butter fell nearly $1 per pound, Cheddar dropped by 50 cents, and 40-pound blocks fell more than 40 cents, reflecting both ample domestic availability and slower product movement. These price declines come even as some value-added dairy exports continue to grow impressively.

June–August dairy export data reveal major gains in high-value categories: butter exports surged 162 percent, American-type cheese shipments jumped 129 percent, and Cheddar exports climbed 131 percent from last year. However, large declines in skim milk powder exports and modest drops in whey protein exports signaled uneven global demand.

Inventories also played a role. Dry skim milk stocks finished August down 12 percent from last year, and dry whey stocks fell 16 percent, tightening supplies in key ingredients despite weaker spot prices.

Regionally, processors reported mixed throughput: cheese plants maintained stronger utilization rates, while powder plants saw reduced volumes.

Looking ahead, global price relationships and tariff uncertainties may continue pushing buyers toward value-added U.S. dairy products.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Weaker U.S. dairy prices come as value-added exports expand and ingredient inventories tighten, creating mixed market signals for producers.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Strong demand supports sweet potatoes, but grading challenges and rising costs weigh on returns for Southeastern growers.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.
The Cotton-4 are pushing hard for new value chain investments. Still, many U.S. cotton producers face unsustainable losses, and weakened regional textile capacity threatens the survival of the Carolina “dirt-to-shirt” supply chain.
Late harvest and tight supplies shape crop progress and agribusiness this week. Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Dec. 1, 2025.
Cargill’s commitment to keep plants open helps preserve competition as Tyson removes capacity amid historically tight cattle supplies.
Tryston Beyrer, Crop Nutrition Lead at The Mosaic Company, examines planning trends as producers weigh corn and soybean plantings for 2026.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joins us to offer an update on what agents are prioritizing as the calendar year winds down.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
Improved export prospects and higher crop prices strengthened future expectations despite continued caution about spending.
The Environmental Protection Agency confirms that new single-fluorinated pesticides are not PFAS and remain fully compliant with current safety standards.
Fair market value shapes taxes, transitions, lending, and sales, making accurate valuation essential for long-term planning.
SDRP Stage 2 now helps producers recover shallow, uninsured losses from major 2023–2024 disasters, with streamlined sign-ups open through April 30.
Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.