Drought and Rising Costs Slow Beef Herd Rebuild Despite Strong Cattle Prices

High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.

0G4A7492 copy.jpg

FarmHER, Inc.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Strong calf prices are not yet enough to trigger herd rebuilding as drought and rising input costs continue to limit expansion decisions. Analysis from Hannah Baker, University of Florida Extension beef economist, highlights growing pressure on cow-calf producers across the Southeast.

Drought remains a major constraint, with all of the Southeast experiencing some level of dryness and about 75 percent in severe to extreme conditions. Stressed forage, combined with early-year freezes, has reduced grazing availability and increased reliance on purchased feed.

Farm-Level Takeaway: High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Input costs are adding further pressure. Diesel prices are running roughly 55 percent above a year ago, with some areas topping $6 per gallon. Fertilizer prices have also jumped, with potash, UAN, and urea all posting significant year-over-year increases, raising concerns about forage quality and production.

Despite those challenges, cattle prices remain historically strong. Steer calves in the Southern Plains are up sharply from both last year and the five-year average, supported by tight supplies and strong demand.

Related Stories
Product targets nutrient loss while supporting plant growth
After a challenging year, Georgia pecan growers are looking ahead with cautious optimism as costs and global tensions weigh on the future of the crop.
U.S. pork production is rising slightly, driven by steady domestic demand, prices, and expanding global meat export markets beyond China.
A prolonged Iran ceasefire offers limited relief as fertilizer concerns persist, prompting U.S. policy shifts and driving farmers to reconsider crop acreage.
California rewards low-carbon ethanol, not higher blending volumes.
Strong exports and prices are helping offset rising milk supplies.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Hemp growth is driven by floral demand, with mixed returns elsewhere.
Tight supply and logistics issues may raise input costs.
Farm programs remain small but politically easier to expand.
Export funding aims to strengthen global demand for U.S. commodities.
Dairy markets are improving, but large supplies still cap the upside.
Investment and access to capital remain critical for agriculture.
Agriculture Shows
RFD-TV has partnered with a handful of agricultural social media influencers whom we have dubbed The New Crop. These folks have taken to the internet to tell their stories and to raise awareness of where our food comes from and all that goes into feeding the world population.
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.
Tara Beaver Coronado (formerly known as Beaver Vineyards) is a farmer in Northern California. She raises grain crops with her dad. Tara planted her very first vineyard in 2018. Her channel is centered around her daily life on the farm, as well as promoting the diversity and scale of California agriculture.