Ethanol Demand Strengthens Despite Mixed Production Signals Nationwide

Stronger fuel demand supports corn usage despite a steady production pace.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS)Ethanol markets showed stronger fuel demand this week, providing support for corn use even as longer-term production growth slowed slightly.

Data from the Energy Information Administration analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association shows U.S. ethanol production rose 0.7 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day — about 46.96 million gallons daily. Output ran 3.1 percent above last year and nearly 5 percent above the three-year average. However, the four-week average slipped to 1.07 million barrels per day, equal to 16.51 billion gallons annually, signaling plants are not accelerating run rates aggressively yet.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Stronger fuel demand supports corn usage despite a steady production pace.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Gasoline demand jumped 5.4 percent to 8.75 million barrels per day — a key indicator of blending demand. Refiner and blender ethanol use increased 3 percent, and exports surged 29 percent to 177,000 barrels per day. Those gains point to improving domestic and foreign fuel consumption.

Ethanol inventories climbed 1.4 percent to 25.6 million barrels, though stocks remain below year-ago levels.

Related Stories
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food inflation, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices for beef, eggs, and dairy.
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
Higher menu prices and tax-free tips are reshaping restaurant economics, sharply lifting server take-home pay even as diners face higher out-the-door costs.
USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
Higher yields are cushioning lower acreage, but reduced production could support firmer potato prices into 2026.
Producers across the country balanced winter weather disruptions, shifting export demand, and tightening margins as year-end decisions come into focus.
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.
Stronger rail movement and lower fuel prices are easing logistics, even as export pace and river conditions remain uneven.
Small, locally focused wineries are finding resilience through direct sales and regional loyalty rather than scale alone.