Ethanol Production Falls While Demand and Exports Shift

Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol production declined last week while demand softened, even as exports and blending activity showed signs of strength. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows production dropped 3.7 percent to 1.08 million barrels per day, the lowest weekly output since January.

Despite the weekly decline, production remained 1.1 percent higher than a year ago and above the three-year average. The four-week average also slipped slightly to 1.10 million barrels per day, reflecting a modest pullback in overall output levels.

Ethanol inventories tightened, falling 4.3 percent to 26.0 million barrels, with stock declines reported across nearly all regions. At the same time, gasoline demand — a key indicator for ethanol use — dropped 2.7 percent to a four-week low, though it remained above year-ago levels.

Refiner and blender inputs increased 1.6 percent to a 14-week high, signaling continued strength in blending. Ethanol exports also rose 3.4 percent, extending a trend of solid international demand.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower production and stocks may support ethanol prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Ethanol Exports Remain Strong Despite February Decline

U.S. ethanol exports eased slightly in February but remained historically strong. Shipments totaled 209.9 million gallons, down 1 percent from January but still 36 percent above last year.

Canada remained the top buyer, though volumes dropped 12 percent to a 10-month low. The European Union surged to a record 49.8 million gallons, led by strong demand from the Netherlands. India also increased purchases sharply, while Brazil pulled back from January levels but still exceeded last year’s pace.

Exports were broadly distributed across multiple markets, including Colombia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and South Korea. Year-to-date exports reached 421.9 million gallons, up 25 percent from the same period last year. Imports into the U.S. remained minimal.

Dried distillers’ grains (DDGS) exports declined 9 percent in February. Lower shipments to Mexico drove much of the drop, while demand improved in South Korea, Indonesia, and Morocco. Year-to-date DDGS exports remain strong, up 16 percent from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong export demand continues supporting ethanol and corn markets.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
March cold storage data showed generally tighter year-over-year stock levels across several key meat and dairy categories.
Spring Weather Splits Conditions Across American Farm Country
Meredith Petersen joined us to discuss the National Swine Health Strategy, how it was developed through industry collaboration, potential challenges ahead, and its expected benefits for pork producers.
U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO Jim Sutter joins us to discuss the impact of new trade development funding for U.S. soy.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Falling commodity prices and rising costs continue to squeeze farm margins. Kip Jacobs with The Mosaic Company addresses fertilizer market pressures, nutrient use efficiency, and strategies growers can consider to protect their fertilizer investment this season.
Weather Swings Shape Early Season Farm Conditions Nationwide
Dry conditions may tighten hay supplies before summer growth. John Mays of Central Life Sciences joined us to discuss the risks of extended grain storage, how quality can be affected over time, and what growers can do to protect their grain while waiting for market opportunities.
Crop value concentration keeps farm income tied closely to commodity price cycles.
High fertilizer costs and global risks threaten spring margins for growers.
Heightened Chinese inspections increase trade volatility for U.S. livestock exporters.