NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — China remains one of the most important export markets for U.S. agriculture, but the relationship has become more uncertain. American Farm Bureau Federation economist Faith Parum says U.S. agricultural exports to China reached a record $40.9 billion in 2022, then fell to about $27 billion in 2024.
Soybeans remain the center of the relationship. AFBF says soybeans accounted for 47 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2024, underscoring how concentrated the market remains in a single commodity.
Brazil has captured more of China’s soybean demand. In 2010, the U.S. supplied 45 percent of China’s soybean imports, while Brazil supplied 32 percent. By 2024, Brazil’s share rose to 70 percent, while the U.S. fell to 23 percent.
AFBF says recent 2026 soybean sales to China have improved, but paper commitments still need to follow through.
For farmers, stable export demand matters as margins remain tight.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China remains critical to U.S. farm exports, but Brazil’s growing market share keeps pressure on U.S. soybean demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Senate Majority Leader John Thune says senators are trying to align the E15 effort with broader Farm Bill negotiations as producers continue grappling with weak farm income and elevated costs.
Soybeans accounted for nearly half of the $15 billion in losses on U.S. ag exports to China due to tariffs, according to researchers at North Dakota State University.
Feed grain supplies may tighten in 2026/27, supporting higher corn and sorghum prices despite large crops.
USDA says weather damage in key Robusta-growing regions is tightening supplies and lowering export expectations.
USDA says growing soybean output and expanding biofuel demand are helping drive the increase.
Industry leaders say restored access is a major step forward, though exports remain well below previous levels.
