NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Farmers and ranchers are gathering key crop information and preparing for the deadline to apply for the newly announced farmer aid package. Economists have been watching the situation closely since trade with China took a turn, and one trader warned that something needs to give.
“So, the single biggest question I have is, are we paying farmers to go off a cliff?” said Johnathan Coppess. “Because if we’ve lost the Chinese soybean market, we need to make some serious adjustments in agriculture and payments tied to planted acres, particularly being made as we go into the spring planting decisions. It could end up having us plant a whole lot of acres that we don’t have a market for, and these payments are not going to fix that. These payments are not going to help that.”
Coppess said aid payments, including those scheduled to go out early next year, can have unintended consequences. He noted that inputs are under significant pressure, and flooding the market with more money could be problematic.
“What are we setting farmers up for? Because I’m worried that the after-effects of these things,” Coppess said. “The tariff conflict with China; the fact that we’re just making payments on top of payments on top of payments; and all we hear is that these payments certainly aren’t solving anything if we have to have more payments and more bridges and more payments and bridges to payments. We’ve reached a level here that I think a lot of us should be really concerned about the direction we’re taking and the outcomes that we’re going to put farmers in.”
The upcoming aid package is worth $12 billion, and while it can be used for anything, a recent Purdue University survey shows that many will put their share toward debt.
“A majority of the producers in our surveys, both in November and in October, said that they expect to use that to pay down debt,” said Purdue’s James Mintert. “This month, that was 58 percent of the respondents in the survey, compared to 52 percent last month.”
Farmers have until next Friday, December 19th, to declare their 2025 acreage reports with the USDA to receive payments. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins anticipated that payments would begin hitting accounts on the final day of February.
According to Sen. Jerry Moran, aid payments will be prefilled on applications based on the information farmers provide to the USDA before the Dec. 19 deadline.
“We learned that USDA will have a formula by which they determine the payment per acre — and that will be determined later this month, here in December — based upon cost of production, based upon price, and based upon yield,” Sen. Moran told RFD-TV News on Tuesday. “We’ll have an understanding of what that payment will look like to individual farms across the country. We also know the form for which the farmers are going to have to apply will be pre-filled in with their acres qualified, and they sign, and hopefully that payment is predicted to be in the mail, in the farmer’s pocketbook by February.”
Farmers are eager for those checks to arrive. But the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) said bridge payments will not cover all the losses many have experienced. Now, AFBF leaders are calling on the Administration to keep pushing ahead.
“There are estimates across our nine major row crops of damage north of $30 billion,” said AFBF Executive Vice President Joby Young. “And so, this $12 billion, this is great news. But, as mentioned by some of our congressional leaders, we saw Chairman Bozeman and Chairman Thompson mention that there’s more work to be done. That was mentioned in some of the announcements as well. So, we’ll work on this program. We’ll wait for the details of this. We’re very thankful for it, but there’s a lot of work yet to do because it’s just, it’s a serious situation out in farm country.”
Young says the Farm Bureau will continue to push for new and expanded markets, beginning with securing year-round sales of E-15.
Producers Want More Trade – Not More Farm Aid
While the bridge payments are largely welcome news across farm country, producers continue to stress the need for trade, not more government aid. Texas sorghum producer Barry Evans with the National Sorghum Producers said trade remains the backbone of his business.
“Trade is extremely important for sorghum producers,” Evans said. “About 60% of our market is exporting. It’s extremely critical. And so, trade is really everything. And that’s why the sorghum market is missing the tank right now because our trade is just so low. It’s critical that we have a trade for sorghum.”
Caleb Ragland, President of the American Soybean Association, joined RFD-TV to share what he is hearing from producers about the assistance and whether it is enough to ease current financial pressures.
“It’s a start — we’re appreciative to the Administration for acknowledging that there is pain in the ag sector, and row crops in particular,” Ragland told RFD-TV News on Tuesday. “This $11 billion will help prime the pump a bit, but it’s not anywhere close to filling the void of the average $109/acre loss soybean farmers across the United States experienced this year.”
Ragland noted that the new bridge payment is intended to help keep farms stable until expanded safety-net programs begin in 2026.
“I’ve said before, government aid never makes us whole,” Ragland said. “It’s helpful. We hope this will help bridge the gap and keep some farm families farming in 2026, but unfortunately, there’s still some blood in the water and deep red on most farmers’ books here as we wind up 2025. We need market-based opportunities so that we can have a better outlook in 2026.”
Trade was also a major topic at a USDA press conference earlier this week following the aid announcement. USDA Under Secretary Luke Lindberg emphasized that while U.S.-China trade is important, the U.S. global trade profile is not defined solely by relations with China.
“Demand for our products is up around the world,” Lindberg said. “We’re seeing an increase in dairy exports. We’re seeing an increase in other export opportunities all around the world. The President’s trade agreements -- I think we have not yet seen the opportunities that will be generated from those in a market where we have never had access before. The President has now created what I would describe as historic leverage to open up that market access. We don’t even know what our producers will be able to garner in terms of market share in some of these countries because we’ve never been able to compete there before. But I’ll tell you what, I would bet 10 times out of 10 that our producers will fare well when given a chance to play on a level playing field.”
Lindberg noted that without the World Trade Organization, the U.S. can better hold its trading partners accountable, recalling the Phase 1 deal with China during the first Trump Administration.
Several farmers traveled to Washington, D.C., this week for a roundtable discussion at the White House, where President Trump officially unveiled USDA’s new Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Among those in attendance was Indiana producer Tyler Everett, who joined Market Day Report to share his perspective on the event.
Everett described the excitement of being inside the White House for a major agriculture announcement, noting it was a unique opportunity for producers to hear directly from the administration. He highlighted several key points from the roundtable, including the discussions surrounding farm finances and the need for stability after a challenging year across much of the ag sector.
He said the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program provides some relief, particularly as farmers continue to face tight margins, rising costs, and market uncertainty. Still, Everett emphasized that many producers are looking beyond short-term support and hoping for stronger market access in the months ahead.
