SOUTH TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — As the Southern border remains closed due to the ongoing threat of a New World Screwworm in Mexico, it has triggered a steep drop in Mexican feeder cattle shipments to U.S. feedlot inventory, which tightened modestly to start February. The latest cattle-on-feed report shows continued declines in U.S. feedlot inventories, confirming slower cattle flow into feedyards and limited herd rebuilding.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported 11.5 million head on feed in 1,000-head-plus yards on February 1 — down 2 percent from last year and close to trade expectations of 98.4 percent. January placements totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below a year ago and near the 96.5 percent pre-report estimate. Marketings were at 87 percent of last year, also right in line with trade expectations.
Regional patterns showed mixed changes. Nebraska rose 3 percent year over year to 2.68 million head, while Texas fell 7 percent to 2.51 million head, and Colorado dropped 11 percent. Kansas slipped 1 percent, and Oklahoma declined 4 percent. Smaller feeding states, such as Idaho and Washington, posted modest gains.
Lower placements point to tighter feeder cattle availability, while reduced marketings suggest packers are managing throughput amid high cattle prices. The combination keeps fed cattle supplies historically tight despite large feedlot inventories.
Leaders in the fed-cattle industry warn the slowdown could have broader consequences for beef production in the months ahead.
“Should we continue to have to produce under the current environment without those cattle in 2026, it will produce one billion fewer pounds of beef, just in our three-state region of Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico,” said Texas Cattle Feeders Association President & CEO Ben Weinheimer.
However, Weinheimer says, the biosecurity protocols put in place prior to the second border shutdown have been highly effective.
“The protocol that was developed is very extensive in terms of the inspection and treatment process,” Weinheimer explained. “So essentially, it requires what amounts to inspections by three different veterinarians, initially at the Ranch of Origin or the Gathering Pins there in Mexico, then a second inspection by government veterinarians in Mexico. And then the final inspection by APHIS veterinarians at the border crossing, at which time, you know, every single animal is individually identified and put in a squeeze chute. Veterinarians and the team of animal health inspectors that APHIS employees thoroughly inspect, literally putting their hands on every steer or heifer to make sure that there are no open wounds.”
While reopening the border is a difficult decision for the Administration, Weinheimer believes that the science proves cattle can be safely brought into the United States without fear of introducing New World Screwworm.
The longer the U.S.-Mexico border remains closed to cattle, the wider the impacts on U.S. cattle and beef production will be. Reports surfaced Friday that the Lubbock Feedyard will close after 70 years of operation due to a steep drop in feeder cattle.
“It’s a domino effect, though,” explains RFD NEWS Markets Specialist Tony St. James. “We cull cattle during drought. Packer closes. Livestock auction closes. Feedyard closes. Cattle come back, and remaining packers, auction barns, and feedyards expand. Rinse repeat. The Amarillo Livestock Auction was once a large and prestigious sale barn. Today, there is no auction (that I know of), though USDA still has a market presence there. We could see more closures in Central and South Texas this year. The closure of the Mexican border is the accelerant in this fire.”
As U.S. cattle producers face continued setbacks to herd rebuilding, beef prices in the U.S. have been rising. These new restrictions to prevent the spread of the New World Screwworm could prolong the trend.
RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey spoke with the Texas Farm Bureau about the impact on supply and pricing.
Gary Joiner, spokesperson for the Texas Farm Bureau, explained that border closures to prevent the pest have limited beef imports from Mexico, which normally help offset domestic shortages.
“In preparation for the New World Screwworm’s possible arrival into the U.S., the border was closed. The southern border was closed to beef imports from Mexico. That amount of product is used to kind of offset any shortages of meat and beef that we have in the United States,” Joiner said.
With U.S. cattle inventories at a 75-year low, the combination of fewer animals and no imports is putting upward pressure on prices.
“So when that closed, it was kind of a double whammy. You’ve got a reduced cattle inventory at its 75-year low, and then you add no imports from Mexico, which just increases the number of animals that normally are in the process chain but are not. So beef prices reflect that shortage not only domestically because of our herd size, and because of the lack of imports from Mexico,” Joiner added.
According to USDA and Bureau of Labor Statistics data, 100% ground beef cost between $5.50–$5.80 per pound in early 2025 and jumped to $6.70–$6.80 per pound by January 2026.
Joiner reassured consumers that food safety is not affected by the potential screwworm outbreak.
“There are huge surveillance efforts right now underway, and there are processes to treat those animals that may be infected. There is no food safety or food security issue related to those animals, even though they may have a screw worm outbreak. The processing of those animals is not affected by that, and the U.S. consumers should have full confidence that the U.S. beef product is safe,” he said.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
