NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer affordability is sliding again — and that matters for farm margins and timing of pre-plant buys. Rabobank’s Knowledge Exchange Division says the 12-month affordability index has moved deeper into negative territory, signaling a new contraction phase that resembles the last downcycle.
The bank expects weaker demand through 2025 and a more pronounced downturn in 2026 as high prices curb applications and shift product choices in key markets.
Regional forces add volatility. In the US, geopolitics and tariffs threaten to disrupt the coming season. European fertilizer prices are likely to rise with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the European Union’s carbon-pricing policy for imports. Brazil faces tight margins and scarce credit even as deliveries could set records. China is prioritizing domestic supply, while India’s urea tenders continue to steer global pricing.
Product-wise, urea consumption is forecast to fall in 2026 — with Brazilian growers pivoting toward ammonium sulphate — and phosphate prices are keeping 2025 demand down about 4 percent, with more declines likely as Chinese exports ease and shipments from Morocco and Saudi Arabia increase. Potash, after a 2024 rebound, is expected to slow in 2025; sustained price strength would pressure 2026 demand despite Brazil’s record import ambitions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stagger buys and diversify sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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