KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD-TV) — Global fertilizer markets are testing new highs even as supply data suggest balance should be improving, says Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX.
India’s latest urea tender ended well short of expectations, securing just 430,000 tons against a two-million-ton goal. Low-priced bids drew little seller interest, and traders now expect another tender within weeks for as much as two million additional tons. The shortfall and India’s potential move toward annual guaranteed supply contracts have added fuel to a bullish market already lifted by steady European buying and limited forward sales.
China’s export window remains closed, though its July-to-September shipments of 2.8 million tons already far exceed 2024’s total. Russia’s exports are also robust, and Middle East output is stabilizing, yet global nitrogen prices continue to climb.
In North America, fall ammonia (NH₃) applications are strong on favorable weather and high corn acreage projections, while urea and UAN supplies stay tight amid downtime and low inventories.
Phosphate markets show similar tension. China’s export approvals expired on October 15 with no extension, likely cutting its annual shipments to under 4.5 million tons from a normal 8–10 million. Combined with weak North American production and import limits, that drop keeps prices firm. Strong U.S. yields are forcing farmers to replace more nutrients than expected, boosting demand just as supplies run thin. Linville cautions that, in today’s phosphate market, hours — not days — can determine whether a product is available.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
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