Analysts are watching moves out of Asia, particularly with fertilizer.
While the U.S. has not imported any from China in years, they warn China’s trade policies could still be a factor in global prices. U.S. farmers have been looking at potential trade talks as a way to ease global fertilizer prices. Still, industry analysts say China has already pulled back from exporting, with or without tariffs.
“There were tariffs put into place on Chinese fertilizers during the first Trump administration, and we saw those import flows effectively go to zero. So, from that aspect, there’s not a direct correlation. We’ve not seen much of a change. The whole Trump administration’s strategy, whatever you want to call it, a direct Chinese situation hasn’t had much to play, But what we’ve been seeing is that Chinese exports have been slowing, and even though we don’t do anything directly with them, the indirect effect is still in place,” said StoneX VP Josh Linville.
Linville adds China’s own export strategy may be having a bigger impact, shifting global supply chains, and keeping more product at home.
“Since ’22, China, when you look at them, they would normally export about five to five and a half million tons of Urea per year. That started to fall off as we got into that early ’22 cycle when China started to step in. But it’s picked up the pace since 2024. Last year, their exports just barely made over a quarter million tons total. Not a single month. Total for the entire calendar year. Q-1 2025, those exports have fallen shy of 4,000 tons. We’re no longer measuring Chinese exports in vessels. We’re measuring them in containers.”
He says the results has been lower prices for Chinese buyers and higher costs elsewhere.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
January 30, 2026 01:13 PM
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The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
January 30, 2026 12:51 PM
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USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
January 28, 2026 01:49 PM
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From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
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Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
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President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.
January 21, 2026 11:50 AM
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Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 02:04 PM
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From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
January 20, 2026 01:14 PM
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Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.
January 19, 2026 04:00 PM
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