Economists are warning fertilizer prices are not jiving with grain values right now, and the situation is approaching near record levels.
Josh Linville with StoneX says the urea to corn ratio is at 99 bushels per ton right now, and UAN is at 79 bushels per ton. Linville says those statistics are the second worst in history for this time of year.
He cites a number of reasons, including plant maintenance, restrictions on Russian imports, and uncertainty out of major supply regions like Trinidad.
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Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
