Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook Shows Mixed Crop Forecasts

Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.

almond trees_adobe stock.png

Ripe almonds nuts on an almond tree ready to harvest.

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s latest fruit and nut reports show both gains and setbacks for 2025 crops.

Apple production is forecast at 11.5 billion pounds, up six percent from last year, with Washington expected to hit a record 8 billion pounds.

Pears are also rebounding, rising 22 percent from 2024’s historic low. Even so, pear output remains among the smallest on record.

In contrast, peaches are expected to reach 682,500 tons, a four-percent decrease from last year. California, South Carolina, and Georgia all project smaller crops. U.S. grape production is forecast at 5.59 million tons, up 3 percent, with stronger wine grape harvests in California and Oregon offsetting declines in Washington.

Other highlights include a nine-percent decrease in cranberry production to 8.13 million barrels, a 10 percent decline in table olive production to 44,000 tons, and an 18 percent increase in walnut production to 710,000 tons. Tight almond supplies and firm nut prices are expected to persist into the fall.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: While apples, pears, grapes, and walnuts show strength, peaches, cranberries, and olives are weaker. Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s harvest.
Related Stories
Producers across the country spent the week balancing spring planning with tight margins and uneven moisture outlooks. Input purchasing stayed cautious, while marketing and cash-flow decisions remained front and center for many operations.
Income support helps, but farm finances remain tight heading into 2026.
Rebuilding domestic textiles depends on automation and vertical integration, not tariffs or legacy manufacturing models.
Strong supplies and rising stocks point to continued price pressure unless demand accelerates.
Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Low prices are painful now, but production response could support stronger milk markets later in 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expanded global trade access boosts long-term export demand potential for U.S. ag products.
Border closures tied to the threat of New World Screwworm continue to stall Mexican fed cattle imports, tightening U.S. feeder cattle supplies over time — triggering feedlot closures that hinder herd rebuilding efforts, threaten the beef supply chain, and shrink production while consumer prices stay elevated.
Agriculture avoided major disruptions, but trade uncertainty remains elevated.
The debate now matters as much as the policy — market rules and regulatory clarity depend on whether Congress can finish the bill this year.
Domestic beef demand remains solid, with the strongest growth occurring through retail channels, according to consumers surveyed in the latest K-State Meat Demand Monitor.
Stronger fuel demand supports corn usage despite a steady production pace.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.