NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global crop and livestock markets are settling into more balanced conditions after the volatility of recent years, according to the 2025 International Baseline Update from FAPRI–MU. Following record highs in 2022, global cereals and oilseeds prices have fallen on strong harvests and steady productivity gains. For 2025/26, most grain prices sit below last year’s levels, while oilseed and biofuel prices are seeing mild support from feedstock demand.
Projections assume stable policy, average weather, and moderate global growth. Price recovery is expected beyond 2026, but levels remain well below the 2022 peaks. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on outlooks — particularly for soybeans — as no new U.S.–China agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s grain exports are gradually rebounding despite reduced acreage, and Brazil’s crop growth continues to outpace much of the world. Dairy prices are trending higher in the long term, with slower expansion in the EU and Oceania due to environmental constraints.
Livestock markets reflect regional divergence: China’s demand for beef and pork is rising, while the U.S. expands dairy and beef exports. Biofuels also remain a bright spot, led by U.S. biomass-based diesel and Brazil’s ethanol program. Overall, productivity gains and slower population growth point to flat real prices through the decade — signaling stability, but limited upside for global farm revenues.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
“We believe that it is just a matter of days or weeks... before we see New World screwworm in Texas.”
September 23, 2025 11:08 AM
September 23, 2025 09:42 AM
·
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
September 22, 2025 12:30 PM
·
Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
September 22, 2025 11:10 AM
·
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
September 22, 2025 10:52 AM
·
With the latest detection just across the border, animal health officials on both sides are intensifying efforts to contain the outbreak before it spreads further north.
September 22, 2025 09:51 AM
·
The USDA NASS report also confirms lower August placements.
September 19, 2025 03:36 PM
·
Chad Collin, founder of The Quack Pack USA, joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to share his expertise in training Border Collies to serve as indispensable farm and ranch dogs.
September 19, 2025 02:56 PM
·
Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.
September 19, 2025 02:42 PM
·
