NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Fuel costs — and farm input expenses — may ease over the next two years as global oil supplies continue to outpace demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to average about $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027, down from roughly $69 in 2025 as inventories steadily grow.
The agency says petroleum production is expanding faster than consumption worldwide. Higher output targets from OPEC+ and rising production in Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are adding barrels to the market while demand growth slows. At the same time, China is stockpiling crude oil, absorbing some supply but still contributing to rising global inventories.
Stocks are building in both harder-to-track non-OECD locations and traditional commercial storage across developed economies. As storage fills, the higher cost of holding excess crude typically pressures prices lower and slows future production growth.
For agriculture, the outlook indicates moderating diesel and fertilizer energy costs, but weaker ethanol margins if gasoline demand remains soft.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower oil prices may trim input costs but pressure biofuel demand.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
February 03, 2026 12:22 PM
·
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
February 02, 2026 12:13 PM
·
Falling livestock prices, combined with higher input costs, continue to squeeze farm profitability heading into 2026.
February 02, 2026 10:22 AM
·
Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
January 30, 2026 03:42 PM
·
Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, provides new updates on winter storm impacts and the outlook for rural power reliability.
January 30, 2026 02:59 PM
·
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
January 30, 2026 02:21 PM
·
