NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Wheat prices could see a modest improvement in 2026 as supply fundamentals tighten, even after record global production in 2025. According to Dr. Mark Welch, grain markets economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, strong worldwide demand and the likelihood of a smaller U.S. crop are shifting the outlook compared with the past year.
USDA data show world wheat production reached a record 837.8 million metric tons in 2025, while U.S. yields climbed to an all-time high of 53.3 bushels per acre. However, U.S. wheat acreage has remained steady at around 45 million acres, and weather expectations are becoming less favorable. The winter of 2026 is forecast to be influenced by La Niña conditions, which typically bring warmer, drier weather to the Southern Plains and raise the risk of lower yields.
Domestic wheat use has remained stable for decades, leaving exports as the key swing factor. Global consumption outside major exporting nations continues to exceed production, creating a growing import gap that supports demand for U.S. wheat.
As the year comes to a close, U.S. Wheat Associates is reflecting on the wins and challenges of 2025, taking stock of what worked, what did not, and where new opportunities may lie for American wheat producers. In its year-in-review, the organization highlighted growing demand prospects in South America, pointing to the region as a key market to watch in the year ahead. Officials say continued engagement and trade development efforts there could help offset headwinds in other global markets.
Looking ahead to the 2025–26 marketing year, the U.S. wheat crop is projected to total nearly 2 billion bushels. That figure represents a modest increase in overall production compared to the 2024 crop. According to industry experts, the production boost is mainly being driven by strong winter wheat performance. Favorable growing conditions and steady acreage are contributing to the higher outlook, offering cautious optimism for producers heading into the next marketing year.
U.S. Wheat Associates says its focus moving forward will remain on expanding export opportunities, strengthening relationships with international buyers, and ensuring U.S. wheat remains competitive in a challenging global market.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
