‘The Big Shrink:' Population Shift Could Reshape Long-Term Farm-Demand Planning

For decades, U.S. agriculture has planned around feeding a growing world. Experts say that trend could reverse course in the next 30 years.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farmers may need to prepare for a future in which global demand does not continue to expand simply because the population grows. Terrain’s Matt Clark and Don Close say global population growth could peak around the mid-2060s, eventually changing export assumptions for bulk commodities.

For decades, U.S. agriculture has planned around feeding a growing world. Terrain says that the model may slowly shift toward less bulk exporting, more domestic use, and more demand for higher-value products.

That does not mean exports disappear. It means trade competition could intensify, making strong trade relationships and new buyers more important in the near term.

The medium-term opportunity may be turning commodities into higher-value products, including ethanol, distillers’ grains, soybean meal, soybean oil, food-grade crops, and differentiated grains.

Terrain also says some peripheral row-crop acres could eventually shift toward grass or grazing if bulk grain demand contracts.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Next-generation farmers may need to plan beyond bulk exports and focus more on value-added markets, specialty crops, and livestock opportunities.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
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Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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