‘The Big Shrink:' Population Shift Could Reshape Long-Term Farm-Demand Planning

For decades, U.S. agriculture has planned around feeding a growing world. Experts say that trend could reverse course in the next 30 years.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farmers may need to prepare for a future in which global demand does not continue to expand simply because the population grows. Terrain’s Matt Clark and Don Close say global population growth could peak around the mid-2060s, eventually changing export assumptions for bulk commodities.

For decades, U.S. agriculture has planned around feeding a growing world. Terrain says that the model may slowly shift toward less bulk exporting, more domestic use, and more demand for higher-value products.

That does not mean exports disappear. It means trade competition could intensify, making strong trade relationships and new buyers more important in the near term.

The medium-term opportunity may be turning commodities into higher-value products, including ethanol, distillers’ grains, soybean meal, soybean oil, food-grade crops, and differentiated grains.

Terrain also says some peripheral row-crop acres could eventually shift toward grass or grazing if bulk grain demand contracts.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Next-generation farmers may need to plan beyond bulk exports and focus more on value-added markets, specialty crops, and livestock opportunities.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Higher costs are causing some producers to delay farm improvement.
The funding will support research aimed at developing stronger crop varieties.
Arlan Suderman of StoneX joined market specialist Tony St. James to discuss the USDA’s October WASDE report and its implications for corn, soybeans, cotton, and commodity demand.
Weakening wells could put costly irrigation investments at risk across the southern High Plains.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Apparel orders are shifting among overseas suppliers as importers look to offset tariff costs.
Tighter slaughter supplies are increasing competition for market-ready cattle.
Imports remain the biggest challenge as domestic olive oil demand continues to grow.
Higher butterfat and protein levels can add hundreds of dollars in annual revenue per cow.
Drought and changing cattle supplies could keep pressure on producer margins through the end of the year.
China remained the leading destination for U.S. soybeans as weekly sales declined.
Lower milk and calf prices are providing less support as feed costs move higher.
Early imports under the temporary quota remain well below the amount allowed.
The program will offer more funding and give states greater flexibility in choosing eligible practices.
New research shows AI investment helped support the economy as tariffs increased.
The order suspends penalties for highway use of dyed diesel through the end of the year.
Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer shows farmer sentiment fell 12 points in September, with input costs as the top concern for a record 52 percent of respondents.