WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA’s Economic Research Service says the global wheat outlook is tightening as production falls from last year’s record. World wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast to be down by 24.8 million metric tons, though it remains the second-highest on record.
The biggest production decline is in the United States, where drought reduced area and yields. ERS says other major exporters are also lower, including the European Union, Argentina, Russia, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
Trade is expected to contract because exporters have smaller supplies and several importing countries have larger crops. North Africa and the Middle East are seeing better production, with Morocco, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt expected to import less.
Global wheat consumption is also shifting. Feed and residual use are forecast to decline, while food, seed, and industrial use are forecast to grow, driven by India’s larger crop and population.
Ending stocks are projected to decline to 275 million metric tons, with major exporters’ stocks tightening most sharply.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller exporter crops and lower global stocks could keep wheat markets sensitive to weather, trade, and shifts in demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Grain farms still have strong balance sheets, but another stretch of low profits will force hard cost cuts, especially on high-rent, highly leveraged operations.
December 09, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.
December 09, 2025 07:00 AM
·
Lewie Pugh with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) discusses the gap in truck driver education programs and how it impacts road safety and supply chain economics.
December 08, 2025 03:49 PM
·
Georgia has regained its HPAI-free status after a swift response to October’s detection. Commissioner Tyler Harper urges producers to stay vigilant and maintain biosecurity.
December 08, 2025 01:29 PM
·
While this month’s WASDE report will not include updated figures on U.S. crop size, officials say it will offer a clearer picture of crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.
December 08, 2025 01:16 PM
·
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
December 08, 2025 01:00 PM
·
