Growing Trouble: Farm income drops as debt and machinery prices escalate

Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices and skyrocketing input costs, resulting in debt that is outpacing income across the sector, according to the USDA’s new farm income forecast.

A new farm income forecast from the Economic Research Service (ERS) is out this week, showing a several billion dollar decline from estimates earlier this year. But in a call with farm reporters, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said it’s still too early to tell if farmers will need a bailout.

Farm-Income-Forecast-Sept-2025.png

Farm sector profits forecast to grow in 2025

USDA, Economic Research Service, Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, Data as of Sept. 3, 2025

The income forecast indicates the amount of cash farmers and ranchers have available this year, which is less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated in February.

Also, a large number of borrowers are reporting trouble at the farm. New federal numbers show more banks are realizing some loans likely won’t be paid back.

Machinery Costs Break the Bank

Machinery costs are just one input cost that has increased over the last couple of years. Several universities have researchers looking into it, and they’ve found a 10% jump for some models.

Related Stories
As part of this effort, USDA will establish a new National Food Safety Center (NFSC) in Urbandale, Iowa, which will serve as the primary hub for FSIS administrative, technical, and support operations.
Brazil’s ethanol growth could shift the corn trade.
Kansas row crop farmer Brad Keeler joins us to discuss drought conditions, planting decisions, input costs, and overall farmer sentiment in his region.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch joined us to discuss snowpack levels in the Colorado River Basin, water supply concerns, and the potential impact on agricultural production.
Congressman Gary Palmer of Alabama joined us to discuss federal overreach, transparency efforts, and legislative solutions impacting agriculture on this week’s Champions of Rural America.
Donald Chase of Chase Farms joined us to discuss drought conditions, planting progress, input costs, and the outlook for Georgia agriculture.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farm Bureau Economist Dr. Faith Parum warns farmers to brace for more losses as the war in Iran sends shockwaves through the ag economy and raises input costs even further.
Fewer DEF-related shutdowns could mean more uptime during planting and harvest seasons.
New Nebraska wildfires near containment, but damages still mount for ranchers across the region.
Widespread drought and extreme weather leave producers managing limited resources
Jose de Jesus explains the National Pork Board’s new campaign, “Taste What Pork Can Do,” which aims to build long-term engagement with Millennial and Gen-Z consumers.
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen highlights the legal challenges surrounding stray voltage, a recent court decision, and what it means for agricultural producers.