Growing Trouble: Farm income drops as debt and machinery prices escalate
Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices and skyrocketing input costs, resulting in debt that is outpacing income across the sector, according to the USDA’s new farm income forecast.
A new farm income forecast from the Economic Research Service (ERS) is out this week, showing a several billion dollar decline from estimates earlier this year. But in a call with farm reporters, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said it’s still too early to tell if farmers will need a bailout.
Farm sector profits forecast to grow in 2025
USDA, Economic Research Service, Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, Data as of Sept. 3, 2025
The income forecast indicates the amount of cash farmers and ranchers have available this year, which is less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated in February.
Also, a large number of borrowers are reporting trouble at the farm. New federal numbers show more banks are realizing some loans likely won’t be paid back.
Machinery Costs Break the Bank
Machinery costs are just one input cost that has increased over the last couple of years. Several universities have researchers looking into it, and they’ve found a 10% jump for some models.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.
With feed supplies running tight, producers can tap into some creative options, according to University of Pennsylvania Veterinarian and Professor Dr. Joe Bender.
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
Shawn Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report with the latest news from Canada impacting the ag sector.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities shares an update on post-WASDE grain movement, with corn leading export momentum, soybeans steady, and wheat and sorghum continuing to move selectively.
