NASHVILLE (RFD-TV) — Cotton harvest is in full swing, and growers across the country are closely monitoring production and exports as the market navigates seasonal trends.
“As we look at this U.S. crop, if we make upwards of 14 million barrels, that looks like we could have a 5 million bale carryout and -- you know, that’s going to keep us in the middle-to-low 60s as we go. You know, last week’s exports were 86,000 bales, which were down 54% from the previous week,” explained Market analyst Kevin Huddleston.
Huddleston told RFD-TV News that any news of trade deals could make the difference in how prices move through the fall.
“You just got to keep in mind China’s the driver here,” Huddleston said. “I know we sell like a broken record player, but we need a trade deal with China to get this thing turned around. We can get a trade deal. This thing could spark back up into the low 70s, maybe middle 70s.”
He said producers need to be ready to secure bookings when the time arrives.
“Producers really need to be ready that if we do get up into the low 70s, we need to be prepared to strike contracts,” he said.
Cotton Harvest Progress
In Texas, harvest is stretching west and south, while in Oklahoma, growers are juggling cotton with winter wheat planting.
Arkansas is seeing harvest speed up. Along the East Coast, states like North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia are keeping the harvest moving steadily.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
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Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
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Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
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“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
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U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.
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Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
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The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
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Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
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Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
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