WASHINGTON, DC (RFD News) — USDA expects more pork production this year as heavier hog weights offset a slower slaughter pace and softer producer prices.
The Economic Research Service raises 2026 pork production to 27.995 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent from last year. The 2027 forecast rises to 28.290 billion pounds.
Hog prices are expected to average $66.63 per hundredweight in 2026, more than 3 percent below 2025. The 2027 price forecast slips to $64.75.
Wholesale pork values weakened in May, with bellies accounting for much of the year-over-year decline in the carcass cutout. Some barbecue-related cuts showed stronger support.
Exports remain a brighter spot. April pork shipments rose nearly 6 percent from last year, led by Mexico, Japan, Canada, and the Dominican Republic.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Hog producers should balance heavier weights and export demand against weaker price forecasts and softer domestic pork demand.
