STEAMBOAT SPRINGS, COLO. (RFD NEWS) — Cattle futures have moved lower in recent sessions as traders continue to sort through a mix of market and economic factors.
StoneX Chief Economist Arlan Suderman says investor sentiment, along with concerns about inflation and consumer demand, has added pressure to the market.
“Yeah, a lot of fund money is involved in these protein markets with protein being so, so popular these days overall,” Suderman told RFD News. “It’s helped bring our prices to these elevated levels, and with inflation risks coming back, the fund money is worried.”
Newsom explains that institutional investors are weighing the risk of both prolonged high prices and recent spikes in inflation against continued consumer demand for beef, noting that these negative chart signals have led to some quick sell-offs.
“This is kind of speeding up the selling,” Newsom continued. “And when producers have hedged production, and they see a falling market, that gives them basis opportunities. So they tend to let go of the cash sooner.”
Suderman says cash cattle prices will also be important to watch as packer bids continue to develop.
Australia Tariff Trigger Creates Opportunity for U.S. Beef
Australia is a major supplier of beef to South Korea, but the country is nearing its annual safeguard volume. If that threshold is reached, Australia’s tariff rate could increase by nearly 20 percent.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) says that the trade barrier is opening up more market access for U.S. beef exports.
USMEF Vice President of Asia-Pacific Jihae Yang says much of Australia’s beef shipped to South Korea this year has been frozen product, meaning U.S. chilled beef could benefit the most.
“Now, nearly 90% of the 125,000 metric tons imported through May was frozen. So the greatest impact is expected to be on Australian chilled Wagyu and chilled grain-fed beef products,” Yang says. “As a result, U.S. beef is expected to gain the most opportunity in retail chains. The major retail chains and e-commerce channels have already begun securing U.S. chilled beef in preparation for large-scale promotion after the Australian beef safeguard is triggered.”
Yang also notes that the safeguard volume is expected to be reached much earlier than normal this year.
“As of June 13th, about 93% of the safeguard volume had been utilized, and the safeguard is expected to be triggered by mid-July this year,” Yang continues. “In the past, the safeguard period after the trigger was relatively short, so importers generally continued without major adjustment. But this year, the market may need to manage nearly half a year of chilled beef demand after the safeguard trigger.”
U.S. beef is also subject to an annual safeguard in South Korea, but at a much higher volume. That safeguard will be phased out next year.
Tight Cattle Supplies Expected to Persist
While short-term price movement remains in focus, analysts say the bigger story is tight cattle supplies.
Oklahoma State University livestock economist Derrell Peel says fewer calves moving through the production system could keep feeder cattle supplies limited for an extended period.
“Feedlot placements and marketings have been declining, the calf crop’s been getting smaller for the last eight years, and the blue bar says we’re down here smaller than we were in 2014,” Peel told RFD News. “We don’t know for sure if this is a low yet. It’s probably the low or very close to it. But, even if it is the low, what do we expect those feedlot production lines to do? The indications are that the 2026 calf crop probably will be smaller than the 2025 calf crop. Feeder supplies will continue tight. We may start some heifer retention at some point. We’re not doing very much yet. And so all of that means that those feedlot production lines, the placements and marketings, should continue to decline not only through the rest of 2026, but probably through 2027.”
Peel says he will be watching for signs of increased heifer retention in the months ahead, a key indicator that producers are preparing to begin rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd.
LIVE Cattle Market Update: Colorado
Superior Livestock Auction’s annual Week in the Rockies has been underway all week, bringing together buyers and sellers from across the country as more than 241,000 head of cattle are offered through one of the industry’s largest summer video auctions.
Charly Cummings with Superior Livestock Auction joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report with a live update from the auction floor on the week’s activity, today’s offerings, and what the summer sales mean for producers preparing to market this year’s calf crop.
Cummings said buyer interest has been steady throughout the week, reflecting continued demand for quality cattle despite ongoing volatility in the broader livestock market. He noted that the large volume of offerings gives buyers access to cattle from multiple regions while providing sellers with a broad pool of competitive bidders.
Today’s auction continues the Week in the Rockies event, featuring additional feeder cattle and calves from across the country. Cummings encouraged producers and buyers to tune in through Superior Livestock Auction’s broadcast and online platforms to follow the sale in real time.
He said Superior’s summer auctions play a critical role in fall price discovery by bringing together large numbers of buyers and sellers well ahead of delivery. The auctions provide valuable market signals that help producers make marketing decisions and establish price expectations for the upcoming calf run.
Looking ahead, Cummings said Superior Livestock Auction has several additional sales scheduled throughout the summer and fall, with producers encouraged to watch the company’s upcoming sale calendar for consignment deadlines and future auction dates as the fall marketing season approaches.
LEARN MORE: www.superiorlivestock.com
