Hog Supplies Tighten as Prices Ease, Production Holds Steady

The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Hog prices are easing slightly with Western Cornbelt caracasses down from the previous week. Pork producer profits have narrowed to about $64 per head, but margins remain in the black, and packers continue to run near full capacity, with utilization around 97 percent. Even with lower cutout values and feed costs, analysts say demand for pork remains steady and supplies are strong.

The latest Hogs and Pigs Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

“That gave us inventories as of September 1 and then helped us kind of project those numbers six months to a year ahead, as we kind of look at those slaughter supplies and kind of anticipate what those numbers are,’ said xxx. “And to summarize that report, you know, I would put it in the category of a bit of a shocker, because not only did we see numbers below a year ago, which was a little bit of a surprise, but compared to pre-report expectations, as there’s about seven analysts that were asked about, you know, what they expected the numbers to be, and USDA came in much lower than those numbers.”

That surprise has ripple effects across the market, with forecasts shifting as analysts weigh the latest numbers against producer demand.

Related Stories
Total red meat supplies were up 4 percent from March but down 4 percent from April 2025.
Year-to-date red meat production is down 2 percent, with beef lower and pork higher.
For producers, demand is strong, but drought, disease, and costs still shape supply.
Butter has softened as milkfat supplies remain ample.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom joins us to discuss China’s renewed access for U.S. beef facilities, the outlook for exports, and key conversations taking place at this week’s Spring Conference.
The work could apply to ready-to-eat meals and delicate foods such as freeze-dried berries.
Tennessee 4-H’ers Allie Paschall and Ramey Boone join us to discuss summer opportunities in 4-H, youth leadership development, and community involvement across Tennessee.
Brad Anderson with AARP joined us to preview AARP Live and discuss the importance of disaster preparedness and family planning.
North Dakota FFA President Cole Anderson joins us to discuss the upcoming state convention, leadership lessons, and what FFA means to students across the state.
Fred Nichols with Huma joins us to discuss the 4 R’s of nutrient stewardship and how farmers are adapting best practices in today’s evolving ag economy.