Hog Supplies Tighten as Prices Ease, Production Holds Steady

The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Hog prices are easing slightly with Western Cornbelt caracasses down from the previous week. Pork producer profits have narrowed to about $64 per head, but margins remain in the black, and packers continue to run near full capacity, with utilization around 97 percent. Even with lower cutout values and feed costs, analysts say demand for pork remains steady and supplies are strong.

The latest Hogs and Pigs Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

“That gave us inventories as of September 1 and then helped us kind of project those numbers six months to a year ahead, as we kind of look at those slaughter supplies and kind of anticipate what those numbers are,’ said xxx. “And to summarize that report, you know, I would put it in the category of a bit of a shocker, because not only did we see numbers below a year ago, which was a little bit of a surprise, but compared to pre-report expectations, as there’s about seven analysts that were asked about, you know, what they expected the numbers to be, and USDA came in much lower than those numbers.”

That surprise has ripple effects across the market, with forecasts shifting as analysts weigh the latest numbers against producer demand.

Related Stories
Brandy Carroll with the Arkansas Farm Bureau shares an update on planting conditions and what producers are facing this season.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains shifting global trade dynamics and what they could mean for agriculture and energy markets.
Rising diesel and energy costs are squeezing farmers and rural communities, increasing production expenses and raising concerns about consumer demand for beef even as U.S. meat exports regain the Australian market.
Texas ranchers and lawmakers warn of renewed New World screwworm risks, highlighting prevention efforts, border concerns, and the role of sterile flies in protecting U.S. livestock.
Farm Bureau economist Danny Munch discusses the USDA’s request for feedback on data and research, how such requests work, and what farmers should know about submitting comments before the Thursday, April 9 deadline.
Georgia Ag Commissioner Tyler Harper explains the growing threat of invasive hornets in his state and what Southeastern growers should watch for this spring.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

FarmHER TV Host Kirbe Schnoor joins the Market Day Report to chat about more all-new episodes on the way!
Right-to-Farm Law Inapplicable when Farming Operation Not in Compliance with State Law – All of It
Let’s meet FarmHER Katie Hitchcock, a Salinas Valley, Calif.-based sweet baby broccoli producer. She stars in an episode of the FarmHER, which returns to RFD-TV this September.
Agricultural law and taxation expert Roger McEowen discusses issues facing farmers and ranchers, like self-defense, Good Samaritan laws, preparing for the exit, and cleaning out fencerows.
Premieres Tue, 9/3/24 – 9 PM ET | 8 PM CT | 7 PM MT | 6 PM PT