NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Nitrogen and phosphate markets are firming sharply heading into spring, raising cost concerns for producers already facing flat grain prices, according to analysis from Stone-X Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville.
India has announced another major urea purchase tender targeting 1.5 million tons for shipment through March 31. While widely expected, the move is seen as supportive of global prices and could tighten supplies just as North American farmers finalize spring planting. Urea values at the Gulf have climbed from a December low near $350 per ton to as high as $465. That compares with $389 a year ago. UAN is trading near $325 versus $265 last year, and Midwest ammonia averages $695 compared to $605 last year — even as grain prices remain lower year over year.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical risk. Three of the top ten global urea exporters and three of the top ten ammonia exporters depend on that corridor, along with Saudi phosphate shipments. Any disruption could significantly impact fertilizer flows.
Phosphate markets are also firm. Global prices are up roughly $20, and limited Chinese exports — typically 8 to 10 million tons annually but just 5.3 million last year — leave a potential supply gap. High ammonia and sulfur costs are limiting downside price potential, even if values soften.
Potash remains comparatively stable and better aligned with grain economics.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
USDA’s February WASDE report, analysts expect minimal price movement as grain stocks remain steady. Traders weigh renewed Chinese soybean purchases, South American weather, acreage shifts, and upcoming USMCA trade talks.
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