NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) — Coffee supplies from Indonesia are expected to tighten in 2026/27 after excessive rainfall hurt flowering and fruit development in key Robusta regions. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts Indonesia’s green coffee production at 11.38 million 60-kilogram bags, down 8 percent from the previous year.
The biggest decline is in Robusta. FAS Jakarta forecasts Robusta production at 10 million bags, down 1 million bags from 2025/26, following heavy rainfall that disrupted flowering in southern Sumatra and parts of Java.
Arabica production is expected to recover only slightly to 1.38 million bags. Flooding and landslides in Aceh and North Sumatra damaged farms, roads, bridges, warehouses, and processing facilities, keeping transport costs elevated.
Exports are also projected to be lower. Indonesia’s green bean exports are forecast at 7 million bags, down 11 percent, while the United States remains one of Indonesia’s top five coffee markets.
Domestic consumption is forecast to be slightly higher, at 4.83 million bags, as roasteries and processors continue to buy.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Weather losses in Indonesia could tighten global coffee supplies and keep attention on Robusta availability, shipping costs, and export competition.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
The latest developments point to shifting export routes, higher congestion risk, and continuing cost pressure for grain, fertilizer, and energy shipments.
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