LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — U.S. interest rate relief in 2026 is likely to be modest, with only limited cuts expected as the Federal Reserve balances easing inflation against labor market conditions. According to an analysis by Andrew Wright, an assistant professor and extension economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the Federal Reserve is signaling caution rather than a rapid shift toward lower borrowing costs.
After aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and gradual easing beginning in late 2024, the federal funds rate held mostly steady through 2025 before modest cuts resumed in the fall. The Federal Open Market Committee’s latest projections show broad agreement on economic growth and inflation, but less consensus on how far rates should fall. The median outlook suggests a single quarter-point rate cut sometime in the second half of 2026.
If that path holds, the federal funds rate would likely move from roughly 3.5–3.75 percent early in the year to around 3.25–3.5 percent later in 2026. Agricultural lending rates typically track 4–5 percentage points above the federal funds rate, implying operating loan rates could remain in the mid-to-upper 7 percent range, with real estate and intermediate loans slightly lower.
Wright notes that actual borrowing costs will continue to vary widely based on lender relationships, balance sheets, and borrower risk profiles, keeping credit discipline front and center for producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Modest rate relief may come late in 2026, but borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
As the Trump Administration seeks out new global trade partnerships, Congress is considering more support for farmers, which comes as the Federal Reserve warns that farmers need a safety net.
September 08, 2025 11:47 AM
·
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins will travel to Europe and Asia to seek new trade partnerships for U.S. crops after China reduced imports due to tariffs.
September 08, 2025 11:45 AM
·
The $221 million will help farmers and ranchers cover losses from Hurricane Helene that USDA programs didn’t cover. They’ll focus on infrastructure, markets, timber, and future economic losses.
September 05, 2025 05:09 PM
·
Tom Peterson with the New Mexico Cattle Growers Association says taxpayers are “unfortunate casualties” of this overlay now that the Mexican wolf population is stable under ESA guidelines.
September 05, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Co-Bank Lead Dairy Economist, Corey Geiger, joined us on Friday’s
Market Day Report for a further look at the drop in replacement heifers and the trend’s longterm impact on dairy producers and cattle prices.
September 05, 2025 12:40 PM
·
September 05, 2025 12:09 PM
·
The amendments affect BLM lands in several Western states. Comments on the Sage grouse proposals can be made to the BLM National NEPA Register until Oct. 3.
September 04, 2025 02:16 PM
·
Mike Formica with the National Pork Producers Council joined us on Market Day Report with his reaction to the EPA’s rollback of a Biden-era wastewater discharge mitigation plan.
September 04, 2025 01:41 PM
·
Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices and skyrocketing input costs, resulting in debt that is outpacing income across the sector, according to the USDA’s new farm income forecast.
September 04, 2025 01:05 PM
·
