Is the rebuilding of the U.S. cattle herd finally gaining traction?

The beef industry has been waiting years for the herd to rebuild, and researchers at CattleFax say it is happening, but note it is taking a lot longer than originally thought.

Despite the higher prices, they say consumers are still buying up all they can.

“It does look like when we look back, January of 2025 will be the low in the beef cow herd. So, as I look at the numbers out here, I think it’s important that people recognize that our per capita beef supplies are pretty flat. They haven’t changed much. This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven. Beef demand is at a 37-year high, and I think when people think about demand, obviously, quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially,” said CattleFax CEO Randy Blach.

Researchers at RaboBank have also been tracking the numbers. They say that hot consumer demand is likely here to stay.

“And I’m here to tell you, as we look at early 2025, all indications are that demand is going to continue to set new near-term record highs, looking like the best demand we’ve seen since 1986 at the moment. And a lot of that’s due to the fact that even though the consumer pricing is going up, and even though the consumer’s increasingly stressed, buying beef at retail is still a relatively cheap lifestyle upgrade that the consumer can make,” said Lance Zimmerman.

The latest Cattle On Feed report shows inventories are down two percent compared to last year at this time. Only two states saw an increase: Kansas herds grew by three percent, and Oklahoma herds grew by two percent.

Related Stories
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.
R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard joins Market Day Report for his insight on the USDA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. beef industry.
Until a phased reopening is inked, plan for tighter feeder availability, firmer basis near border yards, and continued reliance on domestic and Canadian sources.
RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the USDA’s newly unveiled plan to rebuild the US beef herd and the industry’s spectrum of responses to it.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.
U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) discusses the USDA’s new cattle plan, ethanol policy, and the broader challenges ahead for rural America.

Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.