Is the U.S. hog herd ready to expand? Economists say it’s possible

While America’s ranchers work to rebuild the cattle herd, economists say something is brewing with hogs.

New data shows the U.S. hog herd could be ready to expand. They have been crunching the numbers and say feed costs are the largest indicator right now.

“The hog-to-corn price ratio just rounds up to 20 for the last two quarters. Last Friday’s closing prices for the same month’s hog and corn futures contracts suggest ratios exceeding 27 in July and 20 in December 2025, and remaining above 20 in May 2026. If such levels persist, perhaps some breeding herd growth could be observed in subsequent quarterly reports,” said Jason Franken.

Franken has been studying these numbers for a while now. He says that if those levels keep up, future reports could show breeding herd growth down the line.

Related Stories
Productivity gains are supporting supply despite limited herd expansion.
Young exhibitors balance school and months of preparation as they compete at one of Texas’s largest livestock events.
Tight red meat supplies continue supporting livestock markets.
From barns to show rings, producers and students say that livestock events offer economic opportunity and life lessons. Let’s take a look at some shows across the southeast in Georgia, Virginia and Louisiana.
Strong exports support cattle and hog market fundamentals.
Rising protein demand supports long-term trade in feed and meat.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Beginning Farmers and Ranchers, Crop Insurance, and a Business Planning Complication
Smaller slaughter numbers across beef and pork signal tighter supplies into late 2025, while record-low veal production highlights ongoing structural changes in the sector.
UC Davis Professor and Extension Specialist Dr. Frank Mitloehner joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to preview the festivities and share why this event has become such a special tradition for the ag community.
Beal joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss her election to NASDA’s presidency, challenges facing American agriculture, and her background as a Mainer and dairy farmer.
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Taxation expert Roger McEowen joined us Friday to break down the executive order and what it means for farmers and ranchers.
Chad Rezniek with the Colorado AgrAbility Project joined us as part of National Farm Safety and Health Week to discuss the growing need for behavioral health support in rural communities.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.